Live Betting – Goal Hunting
I guess I’m not the only one who thinks
that nowdays, giving winning tips for the final scores of football games
is getting harder each day.
Sure you can play double chances in case of online betting, but that
goes for far lower odds and in some cases, the hours-long info-mining and hard research on teams might be as well useless.
Not to mention how many factors can determine a game except from
statistics: the general mood of the team, unforeseen absence of a key player, wrong decisions of the referee, tactical failures, even poor weather conditions…
At live betting, these risks are still there, but the big advantage of this method is that you can follow the game “live”, seeing what actually happens on the pitch and you only have to focus on the next goal only. Who scores it doesn’t matter at all, the point is, goals must be scored.
Of course, even live betting doesn’t guarantee anything for you — technically, if you watch the game on TV or live stream, you’ll get to see the action 5-15 seconds later than it actually happens, but that difference is quite acceptable, in fact, it’s a bless compared to the stress of a half-a-day waiting.
Before I go to details on the so-called “strategy”, let’s get some important stuff clear, so you won’t get too excited about live betting being a gold-mine. It might be that, of course, if you keep in mind the following simple rules:
- If you are afraid of the possible loss, you are determined to make the wrong choices and at the end, you’ll come out losing.
- In case you’ve already lost some, and you start chasing your money in despair, you’ll lose more.
- If you get desperate in “hunger” or in getting back the lost amount, you’ll fall for the temptingly high odds’ and you’ll lose.
If you accept these 3 rules, you’ve already made your first step towards winning, or at least avoiding the big fiascoes. But there is something more to minimize the chance of losing on your bets. We still love live betting, because with these simple rules you can absolutely reduce the influence of “luck” to the minimum on your tips:
Many make the mistake to try guessing all the goals scored on the match. It’s unnecessary! Of course, if you manage hat, there comes a nice amount of money with it, but let me repeat myself: with a quite decent odds.
For these reasons, many forgo live streams, saying “these are big teams”. Wrong! You only bet on those games which you can follow live on TV or streaming. Believe me, it’s a great help.
Basically, everyone knows the “more/less than” option, when it comes to betting on goals, but here comes one of
the best friends a goal hunter can have, the so called “goal line betting”.
Many do not know what this means in the options list (I didn’t for a long time), but once you get this method known and it’ll instantly become your favourite one.
At goal line betting, the more/less option gets topped by the refund of the stake:
Like when you bet “over 2 goal line” that means, if exactly 2 goals are scored, the stake is 100% returned, you lose up to 2 goals, but over 2 goals, you win, which is an exceptionally good offer.
Besides halves, or total match more/less options you can also bet on 10 minutes intervals, although I personally
think it’s quite a risky deal, fact is, you can make big time money in exchange of 10 minutes of constant heart attack. Not recommended for starters and for experienced goal hunters only with low stakes.
Whatever type of betting you find suitable for you, you must also consider the following factors along with the previously mentioned rules, to make sure you suppress the risk to the absolute minimum:
You must only bet on “over” rated championships’ teams!
(This means championships where the average number of goals per game is over 2.7.)
Some of the more commonly known championships on this rating: the German Bundes-league, the English
Premier League, or from the less followed European leagues, the Norwegian and the Icelandic championships as well.
I, personally, also prefer the games of the South-American teams. It’s a whole other world with other style, motivations, etc.
One shall check on the games of the day, narrowing the search to the “over” rated games to see, what shall bring
money on our table (in case of a good day), eventually.
When you’re done with that, you shall check on the pairings in each championship. Because it actually does
matter whether the current first team meets the last one on the home field or an obviously drop-out team plays against another poor one a couple places ahead (needless to say, the chance for an “over” is far less in the second case).
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Let’s see how strong the teams are in scoring goals!
You might find some cases, when an A-class team rather keep their positions through defensive gameplay, scoring less goals, but still standing in the top-rate. Of course it’s also possible, that the potential drop-out plays with aggressive attacks, scoring a lot and not focusing on the defense so much.
Let’s take a look at the statistics of their previous games against each other!
These shall only be considered in the last 12 months. The data from before might be misleading.
Let’s think about how motivated these teams might be!
It’s quite a common phenomenon that in a Champions League or European Championship finale a Barcelona, or another top-class team goes with its “B” line-up against a weaker opponent, even sacrificing a point for a more important Champions League game.
One of the best high-chances methods, where regardless of the huge odds, all you need for happiness is one single goal. This is first half 0.5 over! This offer counts for the first 45 minutes + additional overtime. This might not seem to be a hard tip, but this isn’t a bulletproof option either. To be safe with that kind of betting, you’ll need one more piece of information:
How much the given teams emphasize the first half in their game style?
At teams known as being the “first-half” type, it might occur that from the very beginning of the match, only 1,5 over betting is possible. This is but a great risk to take. I, personally, don’t like to bet already for 2 goals in the first half, no matter how big the chance is for a good old first-half ba-ga-boom parade. In that case my advice would be to stay patient and wait a bit, and if you’re lucky and there is no goal in the first half, you might get to hit on a nice fat odds later.
Typically first-half teams are, for example, the Spanish top-teams: Real Madrid, Barcelona and from the Greman Bundes-league: Bayern München and Dortmund.
You ONLY bet on broadcast games!
As mentioned before, this is a crucial factor. You get to see what actually happens on the pitch, how speedy is the game. If there are nicely done, well organized attacks, the goal is at hand. An once it’s at hand, it will come to life. If the guys are only playing foot-tengo on the pitch, the goals are supposedly coming later and you might save your bets for the second half.
How and when shall you bet on the first half?
I never go for under 1.5. For that odds, only when the tip seems to be bulletproof but then with a higher stake. Let me add, “bulletproof” means to me, they are shooting the goalposts in every 2 minutes.
You can bet your stake in stacks too. If there is a goal right at hand, you might go for lower odds (1.4-1.5) with bigger money. When there is still no goal after a while, you might play it one more time for higher, 1.7-1.8 odds as well. And if there is still nothing after 30 minutes, but you just feel it coming, you might play it for pocket change on 3-4 odds.
Advantage: if the goal scores in the first half, you might put your hands on nice money,
disadvantage: if nothing comes up in the first half, you get to lost it all.
This is no strategy for cautious gamblers.
Why is it worth it betting on the second half’s goals?
If the first half runs down and the current score is 0-0 (and you didn’t lose any money on the first half because you saw and felt it was totally worthless), but these teams very rarely/never played a 0-0 game against each other, and also, there were a lot of missed opportunities in the first half — in these cases, the second half might provide a chance to clear your financial state. Of course, this is far riskier, because there might come a goal right at the 46th minute, but later on, there might also come one more from either side so that should be waited for too. If the score after the first half in not 0-0, but still even, like 1-1, 2-2, etc. (you might even have made some money on the first half already), you must almost be certain about both teams want to score at least one more goal to clear the game, and according to the previous half, there is more than a chance for realizing it too.
Of course, here also comes that important factor into the picture, that you followed the first half live, so you can more or less predict what might come in the second 45 minutes.
Old gamblers with more routine usually have private statistics of “over”-rated championships, where they keep track on the teams, like on the previous matches, after the given half-time score (f.ex. 1-1) what are the chances for more goals — if the chances are over 90%, you ought to bet on that one!
How to take the maximum out of a match?
As mentioned before, there are quite several methods in the live betting. This, of course, doesn’t mean that you have to go for all these opportunities, but you should try to play the most possible.
For example, you bet that there will be some goal(s) in the first half, because it seems to be highly probable. In this case, besides putting a higher amount on first half 0,5 over, you might also add the restriction that the goal will be scored before the 40th minute. This is already 2 bets of course, which brings in the possibility of double-fail, so this is only for the brave ones, but if the goal comes in as expected, you already have two winning bets.
Naturally, this betting method could go as far as you find it reasonable, if the first goal was scored in the 3rd minute, you can play the same game for 1,5 over, etc.
My personal favourite is that lucky situation, when one of the teams scored in the first half (and I even won with it), but the other hadn’t yet, but it’s highly probable that it will happen sooner or later. This case you should check on the “both teams score during the match” option, because you’re already halfways there.
What else could you play along with it? If the given team scores during the match and the next “over” goal. And also the “0.5 over” option of the team’s goals, if they didn’t score any yet. If that team, who was in the lower position until, scores a goal eventually, you already have 3 winning bets.
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Riskier betting options, which might or might not win, but there are significant odds on them:
– which team scores the next goal,
– the total number of the team’s goals,
– who scores the last goal,
– is the total number of goals odd or even,
I, personally don’t really like these, but I’ve already seen some major wins, when someone hit grand cash with those.
You can also bet on exact final score, I didn’t really experiment with this one, did it twice, actually, once it won, once it lost, so it’s a 50% chance.
Betting’s usually closing during the 75-80th minute, if you bet on the current score, you get to do this on 1.1 odds, or even less. Not to mention that we already saw goals in the final 10 seconds of the overtime as well… And this could ruin the whole (anyways winning) betslip for you.
Her comes the rule to the picture: it’s over when it’s over, meaning, that the match only ends when the referee blew it off.
That’s why I don’t recommend this method, maybe, if there is a goal in wait on any side in the last couple minutes, but for me it’s way too risky and usually a big fail on small change.
This article highlights, that the goal hunters’ options range on a pretty wide palette. You can take quite good money out of a game, but you can also fail big time.
Therefore I warn you all to be precautious and thoughtful!
None of you should take unnecessary risk, unless you are on such a winning spree that you find it reasonable to take the chance of losing a smaller amount in favour of winning a bigger one.
Happy hunting, Guys!
/ Freeman /
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